Apple Pay stalls in India as Kalshi and Polymarket test the rules
Banks don’t really need Apple’s payment system, which makes negotiating hard
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We are looking at India today, and two very contrasting approaches as Apple plays by the rules and is forced to wait, while two very new internet platforms are defying a warning from the government.
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The wait for Apple Pay looks set to continue in India
Apple continues to be frustrated in India where it is reported that its plan to launch Apple Pay has been delayed once again.
The US firm began laying the groundwork for the launch of its mobile payment system some three years ago, and this year it did look like it was getting close to launch. But now Moneycontrol reports that it has run into roadblocks with major banks negotiating hard on transaction fee sharing.
“Apple is asking for 20 basis points (bps) per transaction but the larger banks are willing to share only 15 bps, similar to the iPhone maker’s global commission structure in the US,” the report states.
But Apple has a problem here. India is not like the US or other Western countries where Apple Pay and Google Pay are a roaring success.
India already has UPI, which enables mass market mobile payments through apps like PhonePe, which handles more than one million transactions per day. Digital payments are the norm, so cards are not as ubiquitous as in other markets. But when it does come to cards, banks control the network. That’s thanks to factors that include their distribution and the RBI (The Reserve Bank of India) giving them more freedom than non-bank entities.
The proposition is different there because Apple is no longer offering a premium and differentiated offering in a busy market of cards. It is trying to offer a service that banks don’t really need, or want since it involves them losing the already tight margins they take from cards. Smaller banks are more keen to join the Apple Pay party, as you’d expect given their need to be disruptive.
Apple’s market share does skew towards affluent customers in India, iOS is estimated to account for 5%-10% of devices, but these are consumers that already have cards. Since they’re already owned by banks, Apple is likely to have to concede ground.
But breaking policy to accommodate local markets isn’t something US companies are adept at doing so the wait for Apple Pay may drag on further.
Prediction markets defy potential ban in India
Apple may be stuck due to local conditions, but the same can’t be said of prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket. The two US platforms continue to operate in India despite likely falling foul of the country’s regulations, which obliterated the country’s real-money gaming industry when introduced last August.
The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology said in April that prediction market platforms are illegal and will be cut off by internet providers, but Kalshi and Polymarket remain accessible.
Polymarket, in particular, has been quick to respond to government issues in the past. It is currently partially or fully inaccessible in 35 countries, including the US, the UK, Singapore, Australia and Japan. It’s fairly common knowledge, however, that users access the site using VPNs that circumvent any local blocks.
So why is India not on the list?
It could be that the market isn’t particularly significant for revenue at this point. Just $1.3 million has been traded on the outcome of the 2026 IPL cricket league on Polymarket, compared to $1 billion on the outcome of this summer’s World Cup and $255 million on the Champions League.
India could be seen as a growth market for both platforms, which are heavily backed by venture capital and therefore needing to show momentum. Kalshi is valued at $22 billion while Polymarket is reportedly in talks to raise funding at a $15 billion valuation.
We might see the companies hold out as long as they can to gain attention and users, before restricting the market and seeing how many of that base will jump through the VPN hoop to continue to use the product. For now, the companies are a lot more concerned with the US market, where Kalshi holds a license to operate but Polymarket doesn’t.
In other interesting news you won’t want to miss:
Nvidia is reportedly in talks to lead a $20 million funding round in Indian generative AI startup Simplismart at a valuation of about $100 million [The Economic Times]
Jensen Huang expects China to eventually reopen to US-made AI chips [Bloomberg]
Japan plans to let startups developing dual-use technologies such as artificial intelligence, drones and space systems receive advance payments on government contract [Nikkei Asia]
A lot of LinkedIn thought leadership articles are coming from AI, with help from Philippines-based workers earning as little as $7 per hour [Rest of World]
The US is moving “very, very quickly” to establish its recently announced AI and supply chain hub in the Philippines [Bloomberg]